We all think of the negatives around the bye week for fantasy football purposes, but could there be a huge positive? Is it possible that rested players coming off a bye outperform their average weekly output? This article will explore whether or not there is a real advantage to starting players coming off a bye week who are playing at home.

The thinking here is that the extra rest and the comforts of playing at home will lead to higher player performance. To explore this we looked at a sampling of players we consider “starter-worthy” from the 2008 season and compared their home team post bye week performance to their average numbers for the year. The results were very interesting; lets take a look at the major skill positions.

Quarterbacks coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 316 yards per game. Interestingly, that was only 42 yards more than the average weekly output of the players in the sample from the quarterback position. Rather than focus on the additional fantasy point (assuming 40 passing yards=1 pt) we keep our attention on the 316 yards per game average. What that tells us is that by starting a quarterback coming off a bye at home you are almost guaranteed a big yardage game. The scenario seems to minimize the chance of a below average performance. These quarterbacks also averaged close to two TDs per game, which again is another indicator of above average play.

Running backs coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 77 yards per game, which was 20 yards higher than the seasonal average of the other running backs included in the sample. That translates to an average additional output of 2 fantasy points (assuming 10 yards=1 fantasy point). While these results are not as convincing to us as the quarterback numbers, it does appear that you can get decent production out of running backs playing under the home team coming off bye week scenario. Despite the slight increase in rushing yards, we did not see an advantage in overall TD output from running backs in the sample. At the end of the day, the running back position still comes down to match-ups. If the match-up is right, we would slightly bump up a home team post bye week running back.

Finally, wide receivers coming off a bye and playing at home averaged 104 yards per game. That is 42 yards above the average weekly output of the sample, which came in at 61 yards per game. That extra output translates to a full 4 fantasy points per game (assuming 10 yards=1 pt). In addition, the 104 yards per game average is again a very strong indicator that your top receivers will play above their average at home coming off the bye. Wide receivers also saw a slight increase in average TDs versus their seasonal average, which we view as further confirmation of the benefit gained by playing WRs in the home team coming off a bye scenario.

This analysis indicates that the passing game seems to benefit most from the week off and the home field advantage. The numbers are very convincing from the quarterback and wide receiver positions. Running backs do not seem to benefit from the scenario as much and we would not recommend significantly bumping up their value in the home team post bye scenario. In summary, we think we are on to something here. Feel free to elevate quarterbacks and wide receivers who are playing at home and coming off the bye week.

By: Bobby Hastings

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